ADVANCED APPROACHES TO THE ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF CURRENT FINANCIAL STABILITY IN JOINT-STOCK COMPANIES USING CFAR (CASH FLOW AT RISK) AND 3Σ STATISTICAL RISK MODELS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19606187Keywords:
CFaR, Cash Flow at Risk, 3σ model, financial stability, liquidity risks, cash flows, risk management, joint-stock companies, Monte Carlo, stress testingAbstract
This scientific article systematizes the theoretical, methodological, and empirical foundations of Cash Flow at
Risk (CFaR) and the 3σ (three-sigma) statistical risk models as modern instruments for assessing and managing the shortterm
financial stability of joint-stock companies. The study also interprets their application within the risk management
systems of joint-stock companies in the Republic. It is demonstrated that evaluating current financial stability solely through
traditional static financial ratios is insufficient. Within the framework of the CFaR model for cash flow management under
risk conditions and the concept of risk-adjusted liquidity, the necessity of applying dynamic and probabilistic approaches
is theoretically substantiated
References
Barney J. B., Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage, Journal of Management, 1991, 17, (1), pp.
-120.
Jorion P. Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk. – New York: McGraw-Hill, 2007.
Andrén N., Jankensgård H., Oxelheim L. Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk: An Alternative to VaR for Industrial
Companies. – Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2010.
Collis D. J., Montgomery C. A., Competing on Resources (недоступная ссылка), Harvard Business Review, 2008,
July-August, pp. 140—150.
Stein J.C., Usher S., LaGattuta D., Youngen J. A Template for Estimating Cash Flow at Risk // Harvard Business
School Working Paper, 2001.
Stoyanov B. Liquidity Management using Cash Flow at Risk. – 2008.
E.Didar, A.Bazargan, M.Bagherpour Cash Flow Risk Management using VaR and Simulation // Engineering,
Construction and Architectural Management, 2025.
Shewhart W.A. Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product. – 1931.
Deming W.E. Out of the Crisis. – MIT Press, 1986
