STRATEGIC DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive econometric analysis of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) inflows into Uzbekistan during the post-crisis period of 2020–2024. Against the background of the “Uzbekistan–2030”
strategy and a global poly-crisis environment characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability, the
research examines the evolving sensitivity of international capital to macroeconomic fundamentals, institutional quality,
and sector-specific incentive mechanisms. The methodological framework is based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag
(ARDL) bounds testing approach. The empirical findings indicate that while traditional market-seeking factors such as GDP
growth and trade openness remain significant, the elasticity of FDI with respect to institutional quality and infrastructure
resilience has increased markedly in the post-2020 period. In addition, the study incorporates a comparative assessment
of investment facilitation frameworks in the European Union, contrasting Uzbekistan’s emerging green energy and digital
investment strategies with advanced models such as the European Hydrogen Bank and Ireland’s Industrial Development
Agency (IDA). The results suggest that sustaining high-quality FDI inflows requires Uzbekistan to move beyond broad
fiscal incentives toward sophisticated risk-mitigating regulatory instruments and the integration of digital investment
ecosystems.