ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE ENHANCEMENT OF EXPORT POTENTIAL OF SMALL BUSINESSES AND PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23918615Abstract
The article examines six factors affecting the export volume of small businesses in Uzbekistan based on data for 2010–2025: gross value added, imports, freight turnover, the number of active business entities, employment, and the exchange rate. Due to the presence of strong multicollinearity among the factors (VIF ranging from 17.3 to 652.4), principal component regression was applied. The two principal components accounted for 94.3% of the variance in the factors, while the model explained 79.8% of export variation (F = 25.66; DW = 1.51; MAPE = 20.6%). According to the three-scenario forecast, small business exports are projected to increase from USD 12.4 billion in 2025 to USD 25.1 billion by 2031 under the baseline scenario, USD 29.3 billion under the optimistic scenario, and USD 19.9 billion under the pessimistic scenario.Keywords
small business exports, econometric model, multicollinearity, principal component regression, scenario-based forecasting, exchange rateReferences
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