MODELING AND FORECASTING THE SCIENTIFIC PUBLISHING ACTIVITY OF HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS (A CASE STUDY OF SCOPUS DATA).
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20969899Abstract
The key factors influencing the international ranking indicators of higher education institutions are examined, with
particular attention given to the dynamics of scientific publications indexed in the Scopus international scientific database. The research
focuses on the scientific activities of the academic staff of Termiz State University and their participation in international publications
during 2019–2025. Based on time-series analysis, exponential and polynomial trend models were developed to forecast the growth
rate of scientific publications. The obtained results enabled the evaluation and interpretation of model parameters, providing a basis for
relevant scientific conclusions
Keywords
ordinary least squares method, Scopus international scientific database, exponential trend model, linear regression, regression model, model accuracy, forecast value, mean squared error.References
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