ENHANCING FORECASTING APPROACHES FOR VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE TAX REVENUES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20048375Keywords:
Value Added Tax (VAT), excise tax, tax revenues, forecasting, tax administration, digital economy, fiscal policy, budget revenuesAbstract
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of existing approaches to forecasting revenues from Value
Added Tax (VAT) and excise taxes. Based on official statistical data covering the period 2020–2026, the study examines
the dynamics of tax revenues and identifies the key factors influencing their formation. In addition to macroeconomic
indicators such as economic growth, particular emphasis is placed on institutional and administrative determinants,
including the effectiveness of tax administration, changes in tax policy, VAT refund mechanisms, and the impact of the
shadow economy.
The findings indicate that conventional forecasting approaches do not fully capture the underlying mechanisms of
tax revenue formation. In response, the study proposes a simplified integrated model that combines both economic and
institutional factors. This approach enhances the accuracy of tax revenue forecasting, improves the effectiveness of budget
planning, and contributes to strengthening fiscal sustainability
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