EU CBAM EXPOSURE OF UZBEKISTAN’S EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC SECURITY MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which entered into its definitive phase on January 1, 2026, creates a new external risk for exporters from countries without carbon pricing systems. This paper assesses the extent to which Uzbekistan’s exports are exposed to CBAM and its implications for economic security management. Trade data for 2025, cross-validated through a comparison of Eurostat and UN Comtrade statistics (with a discrepancy of less than 0.3%), indicate that CBAM-covered goods account for 21.6% of the European Union’s imports from Uzbekistan, with nitrogenous and compound fertilizers representing 90.4% of this volume. CBAM certificate payments per tonne of product were calculated under three carbon price scenarios based on the European Commission’s default emission values, the schedule for the gradual phase-out of free allowances, and EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) prices. Under the moderate scenario, the payment for ammonium nitrate amounts to EUR 5.0 per tonne in 2026 and rises to EUR 199.8 per tonne by 2034; for urea, the payment is equivalent to 40.8% of its price. Comparison with models developed by the European Central Bank, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank confirms this risk structure and indicates that part of the burden can be reduced through verified emissions data. Measures to improve the management mechanism are proposed.