HYBRID MODELING OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON ARIMA AND QUANTILE REGRESSION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23181142Abstract
This study explores the forecasting of regional economic growth using a hybrid econometric approach that combines time-series analysis and scenario modeling based on ARIMA and quantile regression. Taking the Surkhandarya Region as an empirical case, the differential effects of investment and the employed population on Gross Regional Product (GRP) dynamics are evaluated across low (25th quantile), medium (50th quantile), and high (75th quantile) growth phases. The findings reveal that lower-growth periods are predominantly driven by extensive labor utilization, whereas higher-growth phases demonstrate significantly greater investment efficiency and elasticity. The proposed hybrid forecasting model provides high-precision estimates for regional economic development scenarios for the period 2026–2031.Keywords
Gross Regional Product (GRP), economic growth, ARIMA model, quantile regression, hybrid forecasting, investment, labor resources, Surkhandarya RegionReferences
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